News and events

02.20.2024

A VERY SOFT LANDING

We remain tactically NEUTRAL and we recommend an opportunistic approach

We remain tactically NEUTRAL for the following reasons: 

   A) Strong macro data will continue to put upward pressure on UST yields in the short-term.

Although the Fed’s reaction function looks skewed towards inflation, we expect the market to keep pricing in the risk that solid economic activity may slow-down disinflation.

   B) The term premium remains in negative territory  

Although refunding risks declined lately, we remain of the view that negative term premium is inconsistent with the macroeconomic context. According to our model, the term premium should be well in positive territory (Figure 2). Moreover, while demand for Treasuries has been solid so far and QT will likely slowdown in H2, traditional investors, especially domestic investors, look historically overexposed (Figure 3), and the supply of free-float is expected to rise.

   C) Disinflation is in the prices. 

Both survey- and markets-based measures of inflation expectations are in line with historical averages (Figures 4 and 5). 
Considering that 1) the historical average includes the long period of below-target inflation, and 2) post-pandemic uncertainty surrounding the steady-state equilibrium of inflation, breakeven rates have little room to fall further in our view. 






​​


Chiara Cremonesi

Senior Rates Strategist

Investment Research