News and events

01.27.2025

BUY WEAK

We reiterate our tactical LONG stance and regionally, the US remains our preferred market, while the UK is our least favoured.

We reiterate our tactical LONG stance. Despite the recent volatility, we expect the global benchmark, driven by the US, to recover recent losses and move towards new highs. The resilient macro backdrop, supportive Central Banks, and a likely reversal of the recent upward trend in rates will support equity valuations.
Regionally, the US remains our preferred market, while the UK is our least favoured. We continue to maintain a NEUTRAL stance on Europe, Japan, and EM.  Specifically:
1) In Europe, risks are currently finely balanced. Pros, such as light positioning, depressed valuations, supportive monetary policy, peace talks, and a strong USD are counterbalanced by cons mainly stemming from political uncertainty in France and Trump’s tariff rhetoric.
2) In Japan, Yen depreciation is losing momentum, but improvements in margins and dividends still support valuations.
3) In EM, downward pressures driven by President Trump's rhetoric and the strong USD may be offset by extremely depressed valuations and expectation of support from Chinese authorities, potentially triggering a sharp rally similar to the one in September 2024.  
At the sector level, we stick to our cyclical tilt with a mild preference for Growth/Quality names (previously barbelled). Globally, we remain LONG on Semiconductors, Software, and Media in the Growth sectors, while Banks and Diversified Financials are our top picks in the Value space. Pharma, Biotech and Life Science are our favourite Defensive sectors (previously SHORT).
Strategically, we remain OVERWEIGHT. We continue to anticipate a 15% market gain in 2025, driven by around 10% earnings growth and multiple expansion. Therefore, we view any market dips as buying opportunities.  
Regionally, we strategically favour the US over the Rest of the World due to a stronger macroeconomic backdrop. Our baseline for US GDP growth suggests that US EPS will grow by at least 10% in 2025, with a potential additional boost of approximately 4% from the tax reforms proposed by President-Elect Trump.
We maintain a NEUTRAL stance on Europe, as we do not expect a likely ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to be sufficient to trigger a self-sustained rally in continental equities. We view this as a short-lived tactical trade opportunity rather than a structural shift from US exceptionalism. We remain strategically NEUTRAL on EM, as the supportive measures from Chinese authorities still fall short of boosting internal demand, disappointing investors.
On the sector front, we maintain our strategic tilt towards Growth and Quality, expecting the so called Magnificent 7 to continue leading the way. 
A structural change in our inflation outlook and a reversal of the easing stance of the main Central Banks would prompt us to be more cautious on equities and long-duration sectors. However, this is not our baseline at the moment.


Cosimo Recchia 
Senior Equity Strategist 
Investment Research

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