News and events

07.24.2024

Politics Cheaps in (Part I)

Our tactical position remains LONG, as we still anticipate the potential for yields to decline further, albeit at a slower rate than before.

​Our tactical position remains LONG, as we still anticipate the potential for yields to decline further, albeit at a slower rate than before. 

Activity momentum is beginning to show early signs of deceleration, the labour market continues to rebalance, and the disinflationary trend persists. This may lead markets to price in an even (moderately) lower neutral rate. 

However, our current recommendation is to take profit in the 4.10% range (as opposed to our previous suggestion of 4.0%).
I) PRICING
We maintain our expectation that the Fed will initiate a disinflationary rate-cutting cycle this year, rather than entering a recessionary one. The potential for sharp declines in yields, unless accompanied by a significant economic slowdown (which is not our baseline scenario), remains limited.
Market pricing (180bp over the next 24 months; Figure 1) discounts a disinflationary cycle, in line with our baseline, while Fed’s dot plot is slightly more hawkish (Figure 2). Unless markets start flirting with the idea of a recessionary cycle, downside for yields is limited.  
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Chiara Cremonesi

Senior Rates Strategist

Investment Research


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