News and events

01.27.2025

SPAIN AND ITALY BEAT FRANCE

Starting the year, we present our views on country allocation within an EGBs portfolio.



To do this, we first examine the relative positioning of the main EA countries in 2025 according to our EA scorecard (see the Appendix for more details on our scorecard methodology). 
Figure 1 shows the ranking of main EA countries in 2025 based on growth, debt metrics, openness to trade, and market valuation, while Figure 2 compares each country’s final score with their 10Y yields. According to our scorecard: 
  • While periphery-core spreads have tightened significantly since the end of 2023, core and semi-core countries remain overvalued relative to their fundamentals, while periphery countries continue to trade cheap (Figure 2). 
  • Within the core group, Germany stands out due to the significant misalignment between fundamentals and valuation (in terms of richness, Figure 2). This is also confirmed by Figure 3, which compares the rating to the valuation of main EA countries. Compared to other EA countries, Bunds trade much tighter vs. swap than other countries’ govies with comparable ratings. In our view, this reflects the fact that Bunds are still largely held by price-insensitive investors (26% by the Bundesbank and 29% by foreign officials at the end of Q2 2024, according to the IMF) and that the outstanding amount of high-rated liquid government bonds in the EA is much lower than in the U.S. 
  • Within the periphery, Italy shows the largest misalignment between fundamentals and valuations (in terms of cheapness, Figure 2). Figure 3 also confirms that Italy trades cheaply vs. swap compared to its rating. 
  • ​France ranks poorly in terms of fundamentals, and after the last six months of OATs cheapening compared to the rest of EGBs, its valuation is only slightly cheap compared to its fundamentals.




Chiara Cremonesi ​
Senior Rates Strategist 
Investment Research


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