News and events

08.28.2024

Us Election Politics cheaps in PART II

Over the last months, we have taken profit on our tactical long position on USTs and we are now tactically NEUTRAL.



Scenario 1: Trump wins and Congress split

Over the last months, we have taken profit on our tactical long position on USTs and we are now tactically NEUTRAL. Assuming that we get to the US presidential elections with yields around current levels, and Trump wins the elections with a split Congress, 

  • We would be looking to re-extend our exposure tactically if 10Y yields reach the 4.40% level.

  • Strategically we remain OVERWEIGHT, with the caveat that room for a decline in yields below current levels is limited, unless growth starts weakening sizably. 

Tactical positioning 

We suggest remaining NEUTRAL and extending exposure to USTs in case of a spike in yields to 4.40% (10Y). The reason for this is that we expect a market reaction to a Trump victory to be short-lived and we do not expect long-term yields to overshoot the 4.40% level on a permanent basis in a scenario of a split Congress. 

Scenario 2: Republican sweep

Over the last months, we have taken profit on our tactical long position on USTs and we are now tactically NEUTRAL. Assuming that we get to the US presidential elections with yields around current levels, and Trump wins the elections in a Republican sweep scenario:

  • We would be looking to re-extend our exposure tactically only if 10Y yields reach the 4.80% level.

  • Strategically we remain OVERWEIGHT, but we would place our positioning under review. 

Tactical positioning 

We suggest remaining NEUTRAL and increasing exposure at 4.80%.

Our more cautious tactical positioning in case of a Republican sweep reflects:

1) A higher risk of an aggressive tariffs policy that could eventually lead to higher inflation down the line (beyond 2025).

2) A higher probability of a full extension of the TCJA. This would be bond-unfriendly in two ways: firstly, it would raise the deficit by around USD 4tn in the 2026-2035 period. Secondly, it would lift growth and growth potential, which would translate to a higher neutral rate priced by markets and steeper curves. 




Chiara Cremonesi
Senior Rates Strategist
Investment Research



Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only. 
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.



​​

Chosen for you