News and events

08.28.2024

The Trump Case SCENARIOS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

POLICY ASSUMPTION: Politics, Fiscal, Trade, Immigration and Energy

​​​Until June 27th it seemed that the match-up would be between the same two candidates as 2020 (Figure 1). Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, and Donald Trump, his Republican predecessor in office. But that night Mr. Biden delivered a disastrous debate performance, making Democrats question Mr. Biden’s fitness for the task.

Enough is enough. On July 21st Mr. Biden bowed to pressures and withdrew from the race, endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate.

Neck and neck. Since then, the popularity of the Democrat candidate has improved remarkably, overtaking that of Trump, albeit by a small margin (Figure 2).

Split Congress. Based on market implied odds for control of the Senate and House of Representatives, without regard for the winner of the Presidential election, a split congress appears to be the most likely scenario. Meanwhile, a Republican sweep is the second most likely outcome (Figure 3).






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