News and events

10.25.2024

UPSIDE RISKS ARE MOUNTING

Though reasons to turn tactically LONG continue to mount, we prefer to remain NEUTRAL for a few more weeks.

​​​​With the US election approaching, the risks of market volatility are significant, which could negatively affect year-end performance at this stage.  

Against this backdrop and consistent with our strategic OVERWEIGHT stance, we keep buying the dips and wait for the day after the US Election to reconsider our tactical stance following the guidance outlined in our previously published research (refer to the notes on Trump and Harris).

Positive catalysts include encouraging news from China, Central Banks shifting towards easing policies, the bottoming out of negative economic surprises across key regions, existing EPS downward revisions, and supportive market technical factors.

Negative catalysts include volatility surrounding the US election, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increasing oil prices.
From a regional standpoint, we upgrade EM to LONG (previously NEUTRAL) owing to the expected positive news flow from China, an improving macroeconomic backdrop, and upward revisions in earnings. We cut Japan to SHORT (previously NEUTRAL), anticipating that the appreciation of the Yen will continue to exert downward pressure on local equities. We reiterate our LONG stance on the US despite anticipating some weakness around the Presidential Election. We keep Europe at NEUTRAL, recognising potential gains from Chinese stimulus while considering the regional economic slowdown.
Sector-wise, we tactically propose a barbell approach, reducing our previous focus on Quality/Growth while increasing exposure to traditional Cyclicals.
Strategically, we maintain an OVERWEIGHT position, as we foresee significant market gains of 15-20% over the next 12 months supported mostly by earning growth and multiple expansion. Therefore, we view any market dips as buying opportunities.  
From a regional perspective, we strategically prefer the US over the Rest of the World owing to a relatively better macroeconomic backdrop. Our upgraded US GDP growth baseline supports our new view that the US EPS will grow at least by 10% in 2025 (previously high single-digit) unless there is a rise in the corporate tax rate. 
We maintain a NEUTRAL stance on EM, while keeping our outlook under review for a potential upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
From a sector perspective, we maintain our strategic tilt towards Growth/Quality, despite a slightly better-than-expected macro backdrop in the US and an increased likelihood of a Chinese reacceleration.


Cosimo Recchia, Senior Equity Strategist 
Francesco Ponzano, Junior Equity Strategist
Investment Research


Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only. 
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.