News and events

02.22.2024

STILL ON AUTHORITIES SHOULDERS

Chinese authorities have rolled out a series of easing measures in the previous quarters, which helped stabilizing growth and induced early signs of domestic demand consolidation. It’s still too early, though, to turn constructive, in our view.

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Tactical view - Downside risks under control, room for upside still limited.
The macro backdrop has remained broadly steady, as Chinese authorities seemingly succeeded in stabilizing growth. Signs of reacceleration are not in sight yet, though. Following the economic rebound in Q2 last year (GDP up 6.3% y/y), the Chinese economy slipped into a downturn due to 1) weak domestic demand amid cautious households’ sentiment, 2) ongoing housing sector correction, 3) persistent deflationary pressures and 4) global economic slowdown.
Since then, all these factors have only marginally eased, if any. In detail: 
1. Domestic demand remains below trend despite authorities’ efforts to encourage spending. Retail sales slowed down going into Q4 in y/y terms (Figure 1), burdened by negative base effect; meanwhile, in sequentially households’ spending shows early signs of reacceleration, mainly driven by sales of good (Figure 2). Overall, high frequency data suggest economic momentum has improved during the New Year break (Figure 3). In any case, we continue to think households’ sentiment remain way too weak to suggest a self-sustainable spending uptrend is around the corner (Figure 4). ​​



Valerio Ceoloni
Senior EM/FX Strategist
Investment Research




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