News and events

12.13.2024

EUR USD - The Conjuring

Going into 2025, we stick to our strategic LONG USD positioning. Several forces are conjuring against the single currency, making us stick with our SHORT positioning.

​​We stick to our strategic LONG USD view, as we SHORT the EUR. We increasingly think downside risks for the EUR are mounting, owing to an entrenching adverse growth/inflation mix for the Eurozone vis à vis the US. Furthermore, we believe several other factors, such as the re-election of Trump and political stalemates in France and Germany, will conjure against the single currency at least throughout H1-25.

Fed expects the economy to weaken next year. The US dollar experienced a notable decline over the summer, as EUR/USD reached a year-to-date high (Figure 1), following the Federal Reserve’s anticipated policy reversal during the FOMC meeting on September 18. The Fed surprised markets by implementing a sharper-thanexpected rate cut of 50 basis points, followed by another 25bp cut in November, with projections pointing to further easing ahead.
This proactive approach reflected the Fed’s response to a sharper-than-expected weakening in the labor market (Figure 2, 3), consistent with expectations for a slowing US economy. The GDP growth is projected to stabilize from an estimated 2.9% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, and then decelerate to 2.3% in 2025 (Figures 4).





The dots project 150 bp of further cuts over 2025-26. Against this backdrop, the Fed maintained its growth projections across its forecast horizon, while it adjusted other key metrics: unemployment estimates were revised upwards, and inflation forecasts were lowered to 2.3%-2.1%-2.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively (down from 2.6%-2.3%-2.0% projected in June). Thus, the Fed projected a total reduction of 100bps by the end of 2024, another 100bps in 2025, and 50bps in 2026, culminating in 250bps of cuts over three years.

Valerio Ceoloni
Senior EM/FX Strategist
Investment Research



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