News and events

01.27.2025

EM - NAVIGATING CHOPPY WATERS

Emerging market growth in 2025 faces significant uncertainty, influenced by developments in the U.S. and China.



Potential policy shifts in the U.S. could trigger a significant negative supply shock, impacting EM economies, as the new U.S. administration is likely to dampen EM growth prospects and constrain policy easing. Furthermore, with the dollar expected to stay strong in H1-25 and a slowdown in China’s growth, we anticipate a challenging start to the year for the asset class as headwinds prevail. Considering these challenges, our baseline forecast projects EM growth (excluding China) to slow from 3.4% to 3.0% in 2025. Therefore, we begin the year with a cautious NEUTRAL stance, although risks remain tilted to the downside.

Emerging markets in 2025 are likely to face increased volatility compared to last year. The first Trump administration was a turbulent period for EM assets: following the November 2016 election, currencies like MXN and CNY depreciated by nearly 15%, bottoming out in early 2017 (Figure 1). A temporary relief rally followed as markets hoped the Trump policy agenda would be less aggressive, but those hopes were dashed.

In 2018, trade restrictions targeting China and others hurt business sentiment, capital expenditure, and EM assets. By the end of 2018, EM FX remained over 8% weaker against the USD compared to pre-2016 election levels, driven by higher U.S. rates and global uncertainty. 

For 2025, we anticipate less of a delay in Trump’s policy action compared to 2017 and we expect high volatility, driven by several potential U.S. policy shifts and their global ripple effects.   

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Valerio Ceoloni
Senior EM/FX Strategist
Investment Research

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