News and events

08.28.2024

US Election Just a Trade, not a regime shift

Assuming we get to the US presidential election with the US indices and valuations around current levels, we would tactically recommend a NEUTRAL stance expecting higher volatility around the event in case of higher chances of a Republican sweep.

Demystifying the Trump Trade

We disagree, at least from a strategic perspective, that former President Trump’s victory would support the “Trump Trade”. The odds of Trump’s victory skyrocketed in the first weeks of July triggering a sharp rotation within the market that lost approximately 9% over the following three weeks. Both Small Caps and Value names outpaced their relative counterparties by 14pp, before giving back parts of the gains going through August (Figure 1). We saw similar dynamics back in 2016, when Small Caps and Value were outperforming while the S&P was rolling over as Trump experienced more and more favorable polls. Interestingly, back then the Trump Trade was short lived and exhausted itself within a month from the election (Figure 2). So, the chance of a Trump victory fueled the Trump Trade, but Trump’s actual victory halted it – we expect something similar to happen this time around, too. 





Cosimo Recchia

Senior Equity Strategist

Investment Research



Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only. 
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.

​​

​9