We remain slightly LONG tactically. We believe that the recent increase in volatility is mostly due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and FFR repricing rather than weakening earning expectations.
Against this backdrop, we continue to see near-term risk and reward, with the potential upside greater than the potential losses. Accordingly, we remain buyers in times of market weakness, including the current one. We acknowledge that we are approaching late spring, a historically anemic time of the year for the asset class. However, we believe is still too early to adopt a prudent stance, which might be more appropriate going into June.
From a regional standpoint, we have neutralized any regional preference (previously DM > EM; Continental Europe ex SWI > US). We expect a broad-based bounce back.
At the sector level, we maintain a barbell approach, preferring sectors with strong EPS momentum. That said, we remain agnostic on growth vs value and will continue to chase cyclicals over defensives.
We remain of the opinion that fundamentals and idiosyncrasies are in the leading seat.
We remain strategically OVERWEIGHT, barring any further escalation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. We expect the main stock markets to soar 10/15% this year mainly boosted by earnings growth. Such constructive view is supported by macro data that keep surprising to the upside in every region for the second month in a row, and a steady improvement in real wage growth both in the US and in the Euro Area. Against this backdrop, we regard market weaknesses as buying opportunities as, in our view, the ultimate price correction is still some way off. This would require either a recession, and/or the Fed to get back on the war path (not our baseline).
From a regional standpoint, we strategically prefer US over the Rest of the Word (RoW) owing to a relatively better macro backdrop and the dominance in the AI sector.
From a sector standpoint, we continue to strategically favor Growth names owing to better earnings growth perspectives and declining sensitivity to rates. Among traditional Cyclicals we like Capital Goods, especially those names linked to the on/near-shoring process; ongoing geopolitical tensions further support this approach. Health Care and Utilities are our favorite Defensives. Meanwhile, style-wise, we continue to like Small Caps, especially in Europe, without giving up on Mega Caps.
Cosimo Recchia
Senior Equity Strategist
Investment Research
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