News and events

12.13.2024

Christmas Sprint

We reiterate our tactical LONG stance. We foresee the global benchmark grinding higher towards new highs backed by the still resilient macro backdrop and supportive Central Banks.

Regionally, the US remains our favourite market, whilst the UK is our least favourite. We neutralize, though, the exposure towards other main regions. Specifically:

1) We cut EM to NEUTRAL (previously LONG) as President Trump’s rhetoric and the strong USD impact regional valuations.
2) We downgrade Japan to NEUTRAL (previously LONG) as Yen depreciation is losing steam in anticipation of the next BoJ hike.
3) We upgrade Europe to NEUTRAL (previously SHORT) owing to light positioning, depressed valuations, supportive monetary policy, and strong USD. Challenges remain, though, mainly stemming from political uncertainty in France, Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs, and an ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks.

At sector level, we stick to our barbelled cyclical tilt. Globally, we remain LONG on Semiconductors, Software, and Media in the Growth sectors, while Banks and Diversified Financials are our top picks in the Value space.

Strategically, we remain OVERWEIGHT. We continue to expect a 15% market gain in 2025 driven by around 10% earnings growth and multiple expansion. Thus, we see any market dips as buying opportunities.

Regionally, we strategically favour the US over the Rest of the World due to a stronger macroeconomic backdrop. Our US GDP growth baseline suggests US EPS will grow at least by 10% in 2025, with a potential additional boost of approximately 4% resulting from the tax reforms proposed by President-Elect Trump. Furthermore, historically, the US shows resilience so long as the macro backdrop holds up, making it the preferred market even in the event of an economic downturn.

We maintain a NEUTRAL stance on Europe, not expecting a likely ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to be enough to trigger a selfsustained rally of Continental equities. We view this more as a shortlived tactical trade opportunity, rather than a structural shift from US exceptionalism. 

We also maintain a NEUTRAL stance on EM, although our outlook remains under review for a potential upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.

On the sector front, we maintain our strategic tilt towards Growth and Quality, even with a slightly better-than-expected US macro backdrop and an increased likelihood of economic reacceleration in China.

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Cosimo Recchia 
Senior Equity Strategist 
Investment Research



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